Ukraine and your portfolio

On the 24th of February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. This article will investigate the potential impact of war in Ukraine on your portfolio.

War in Ukraine

War in Ukraine currently dominates the news cycle.

The conflict has driven already elevated commodity prices even higher. Oil, the most crucial commodity driving inflation, has topped $115 a barrel, and European gas prices had increased by 62% at the time of writing.

Response to the conflict

The western allies have responded to Russia’s actions with a raft of sanctions.

So, what is the impact on your portfolio?

Commodity Inflation

The companies we own have dealt with high commodity prices in the past year by increasing the price of their products. Their most recent financial results show increased prices without damaging demand for their products.

Interest Rate Cycle

As we wrote in our last blog, interest rates affect the price of assets. The US Federal Reserve has publicly stated its intention to raise interest rates several times in 2022 to cool the US economy and tamp down inflation.

Rapidly rising commodity prices suppress the demand for commodities. High prices could reduce inflation by reducing the demand. Slowing inflation could reduce the need to increase interest rates as dramatically as previously thought.

It is not possible to predict the path of inflation or interest rates. We are however, prepared to react to the different scenarios.

Exposure to Russia

Demand for our products from consumers is not affected by the war in Ukraine.

Most of the companies we own have less than a 2% revenue exposure to Russia. For this reason most of the companies we own have shuttered their businesses in Russia.

The list of companies that are part of our universe of shares with more than 2% exposure to Russia include PepsiCo at 4.5%, Mondelez International at 3.5%, Kimberly-Clark Corporation at 2.3% and Monster Beverage 2.1%. Estee Lauder gets 2.7% of its revenue from Russia and Ukraine. McDonald’s has 2% of its 37,295 restaurants in Russia. The rest of our companies have less that 2% exposure.

So, the revenue exposure to Russia and the Ukraine is negligible. The profit impact is even less. The companies we own generate revenue by selling to the 250 million richest people on earth. The GDP per capita of this consort is above USD 70k per person. The GDP per capita in Russia is around USD 10k.


It is not possible to predict how the conflict will unfold and the eventual outcome.

At present markets are more affected by the potential trajectory of interest rates rather than the war in Ukraine. The US Federal Reserve will meet on the 17 th of March to determine their interest rate decision for this month.

“The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain. Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook.”

The companies in our portfolios remain sound businesses as evidenced in their most recent set of results. Their prices could fluctuate dramatically. Volatility will provide trading and purchasing opportunities.

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